Sweden Weighs 2,000-Kilometre Missiles, Pushing the Baltic Into a New Era of Deterrence

Sweden’s armed forces have asked the government for permission to acquire long-range weapon systems capable of striking targets up to 2,000 kilometres away, a move that would significantly expand the country’s ability to hit military infrastructure deep inside an adversary’s territory.

In a report delivered to the government this week, the Swedish Armed Forces argue that the shift is driven by lessons from the war in Ukraine and by Russia’s rapid build-up of long-range cruise missiles, ballistic missiles and drones. They say Sweden must be able to hold at risk high-value targets far beyond its immediate neighborhood, including command nodes, air bases and logistics hubs.

“The experience from the war in Ukraine indicates that Russia is vigorously developing its long-range capabilities,” Defence Minister Pål Jonson told Reuters, adding that Stockholm must “build a stronger deterrent against that threat.”

The distance from Stockholm to Moscow is roughly 1,000 kilometres. A 2,000-kilometre cruise missile would, on paper, give Sweden coverage over most key military sites in western Russia — a capability the country has never possessed in peacetime.

From Taurus to Deep Strike

Sweden has already ordered the Swedish-German Taurus KEPD 350, an air-launched cruise missile with a range of more than 500 kilometres, to arm its JAS 39 Gripen fighters. The missile is designed to fly at low altitude and penetrate hardened targets with a heavy warhead, and is due to become operational in Swedish service later this decade. 

But the new requirement goes far beyond Taurus. To reach out to 2,000 kilometres, Stockholm will need either a new generation of missile or access to foreign systems with significantly extended range.

Defence officials and analysts are now sketching three broad paths:

1. Buying American
   As a NATO member, Sweden could seek U.S. air-launched systems such as the AGM-158 JASSM-ER, whose range is advertised at around 1,000 kilometres and which already equips several allied air forces. Washington is also working on longer-range variants and ground-launched cruise missiles as it adapts to a post-INF environment. 
2. Doubling Down on European Industry
   A second option is to deepen cooperation with European partners. France, Germany, Italy and Poland have already agreed to jointly develop ground-launched cruise missiles with ranges beyond 500 kilometres, explicitly to fill what they describe as a gap in European arsenals exposed by the war in Ukraine. Sweden could plug into that effort or use it as a model for a Taurus successor developed with Germany and MBDA, leveraging Saab’s experience in guidance, navigation and warhead integration.
3. A National Deep-Strike Program
   The most ambitious route would be a largely home-grown missile, built around Saab and a wider Nordic-European supply chain. That would be slower and more expensive, but it would give Stockholm maximum control over export policy, software, and future upgrades — something Sweden has historically valued in systems like Gripen.

In all three scenarios, the Gripen fleet and potential future ground-launched launchers are likely to sit at the centre of Sweden’s concept for deep precision strike.

Beyond Missiles: The Architecture Around Them

The report to the government does not stop at warheads and range rings. It also calls for substantial investment in air and missile defense, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR), and space-based assets, including drones and spy satellites. 

European strategists have increasingly framed these capabilities under the banner of “deep precision strike” — the ability to hit critical targets deep inside an aggressor’s territory with conventional weapons at ranges up to and beyond 2,000 kilometres, while feeding those strikes with high-quality, real-time targeting data.

For Sweden, that means more than simply buying a missile. It implies a layered system in which:

• satellites and long-endurance drones find and track targets,
• secure command-and-control networks assign missions,
• Gripen fighters or ground launchers deliver cruise missiles at standoff distance, and
• upgraded air defenses protect Swedish territory from retaliatory strikes.

The Clock Is Ticking

The Swedish military’s report warns that Russia’s overall military capacity is expected to increase over the next five years, even as its forces remain bogged down in Ukraine. 

That timeline effectively sets a political and industrial deadline for Stockholm: if Sweden wants long-range strike and the architecture to support it in place before the early 2030s, decisions on suppliers, partners and funding will need to come soon.

What began as a narrow discussion about missile range is fast turning into a broader question: what kind of military power does Sweden intend to be as a full NATO member on the Baltic rim — and how far from its own shores does it want to be able to reach?