Military Analyst Zečević: Small States Should Act Cautiously as Russian Influence Persists
Russian influence in the Western Balkans has not disappeared but has been significantly weakened by the war in Ukraine, according to military analyst Berko Zečević. He argues that small states should pursue restrained and pragmatic policies amid growing global instability.
Military analyst Berko Zečević has assessed that Russia continues to exert influence in Southeast Europe, but with reduced strategic leverage compared to previous decades. Speaking in an interview with the Montenegrin daily Pobjeda, Zečević outlined how the conflict in Ukraine has undermined Moscow’s traditional political and symbolic appeal across the region.
According to Zečević, long-standing narratives built on shared Slavic or Orthodox identity no longer carry the same weight, as the war has exposed limits to Russia’s power and resources. While Moscow remains active through political messaging and indirect means, he indicated that its capacity to shape outcomes in the Balkans has narrowed.
Zečević placed these developments within a broader international context marked by instability and competition among major powers. He pointed to the prolonged war in Ukraine, tensions in the Middle East, and China’s expanding military profile as indicators of an international system increasingly driven by raw power rather than predictable rules.
In such an environment, Zečević argued that smaller states face structural constraints. He emphasized that countries in the Western Balkans lack the political, military, and economic leverage to influence great-power competition and should therefore avoid overt alignment or confrontational postures. Instead, he suggested that cautious diplomacy and low-profile decision-making offer the best prospects for preserving national stability.
Addressing regional security, Zečević assessed that the likelihood of large-scale conventional conflict in the Balkans remains low. He cited the absence of centralized military structures comparable to those that existed during the Yugoslav era, as well as the current security arrangements, including NATO membership for some states and international oversight mechanisms.
Overall, Zečević described the present period as one of uncertainty, in which global and regional dynamics remain fluid. For small states in Southeast Europe, he concluded that careful management of external relationships and avoidance of unnecessary geopolitical exposure are essential under current conditions, according to Pobjeda.
