Lithuanian Defense Minister Warns of Russian Threat to Baltic States and Poland

Lithuanian Defense Minister Robertas Kaunas has warned that Russia could seek a new confrontation involving the Baltic states or Poland as pressure on Moscow increases over the war in Ukraine.

Kaunas said the Kremlin may look for an alternative political or military success if it remains unable to achieve its objectives in Ukraine. In his assessment, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, and Poland are the nearest potential targets for such an escalation.

The warning follows an intelligence assessment disclosed by Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda. According to the president, available information indicates that Russia may be considering limited operations against critical infrastructure in the Baltic region or Poland.

The intelligence does not identify a specific location or timeline. Possible scenarios could involve conventional military assets, sabotage, cyber activity, or other hybrid methods targeting energy and transport systems.

Lithuania has increased security around bridges, electricity substations, gas infrastructure, communications facilities, and other strategic sites. The Public Security Service is expected to provide physical protection, with support from the Lithuanian Armed Forces when required.

Authorities are also preparing contingency measures and coordinating their response with NATO allies. The reinforced security posture reflects wider concern across the alliance about attacks designed to disrupt infrastructure or test NATO decision-making without developing into a full-scale military confrontation.

General Raimundas Vaikšnoras, Lithuania’s chief of defense, said there were currently no visible signs of an imminent conventional Russian attack against Lithuania or the wider Baltic region. However, he indicated that provocations involving military assets could not be excluded.

Poland and Latvia have issued similar warnings. Regional authorities are monitoring the possibility of border incidents, drone operations, sabotage, cyberattacks, and other limited actions that could place pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.

The security measures also have procurement and industrial implications. Protecting energy networks, communications systems, transport corridors, and military mobility infrastructure will require additional investment in counter-drone systems, surveillance, cyber defense, electronic warfare, and physical site protection.

For NATO members in Central and Eastern Europe, the warnings reinforce the need to connect conventional deterrence with infrastructure resilience. Civilian energy and transport assets are increasingly treated as part of the wider defense architecture because of their importance to reinforcement, logistics, and military mobility.

The Kremlin has rejected the Lithuanian allegations and said they were being used to justify further NATO military activity in the Baltic region.