German Intelligence Warns Russia’s ‘Shadow War’ Is Entering More Dangerous Phase

Germany’s intelligence chiefs have warned that Russia’s campaign of espionage, sabotage, cyber activity and other hybrid operations against Germany is entering a more dangerous phase, raising the risk of escalation into direct confrontation.

Speaking during a rare public hearing of the Bundestag’s Parliamentary Oversight Panel on October 5, Bundesnachrichtendienst (BND) President Martin Jäger described Russia as Germany’s most dangerous current adversary and said the security situation had deteriorated substantially over the past year.

“Russia is waging a shadow war against us,” Jäger told lawmakers, according to German parliamentary and media reporting. He said Germany was not formally at war with Russia but was nevertheless facing persistent hostile activity below the threshold of conventional armed conflict.

Jäger said the escalation predicted by German intelligence services in late 2025 had now materialized, pointing to intensified Russian military activity in Ukraine and growing pressure on Germany and Europe.

The BND chief warned that Germany could eventually be drawn into a violent confrontation if the current trajectory continues. At the same time, he stopped short of predicting an imminent large-scale Russian attack on NATO territory. According to Reuters, German intelligence considers such a scenario unlikely at present, while lower-intensity military activity against NATO members, particularly in the Baltic region, remains possible.

Sabotage and assassination threats

Sinan Selen, president of Germany’s domestic intelligence service, the Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (BfV), separately warned that Russia’s activity extends beyond conventional espionage.

Selen said Russian operations include sabotage, disinformation and preparations for targeted killings, describing threats that European intelligence services once associated with a possible future military confrontation as an operational reality for counterintelligence agencies today.

German officials also referred to the attempted attack at Leipzig/Halle Airport as an example of the evolving threat environment. A drone carrying explosives was discovered near Ukrainian cargo aircraft at the airport in August, an incident cited by Jäger and Selen during the hearing.

The BND chief also said Russia was seeking to disrupt military support for Ukraine. Germany has become one of Kyiv’s most important European defense suppliers, making military logistics, defense production and related infrastructure increasingly important elements of the country’s counterintelligence effort.

Intelligence services seek broader powers

The warnings come as the German government moves to expand the capabilities of its intelligence agencies.

Proposed reforms would give the BND and BfV broader authority to collect, process and analyze information and, in certain circumstances, take more active measures against threats such as cyberattacks and sabotage.

Selen argued that Germany’s domestic intelligence service needs to evolve into a more operational counterintelligence organization comparable with partner services elsewhere in Europe. Jäger likewise said the changing security environment requires Germany’s intelligence structures to adapt.

Martina Rosenberg, president of the Military Counterintelligence Service, also appeared at the October 5 hearing alongside Jäger and Selen.

The Parliamentary Oversight Panel supervises Germany’s three federal intelligence services — the BND, BfV and the Military Counterintelligence Service. While its regular meetings are classified, the heads of the services appear publicly before the panel once a year.

The unusually stark public assessments reflect growing concern in Berlin over the increasingly blurred boundary between espionage, covert action and military pressure.

For Germany’s defense sector, that shift also raises the importance of industrial security and counterintelligence as the country expands military production and remains a major supplier of weapons and equipment to Ukraine.